Mark, Jack, et al.
I've really appreciated this discussion on visions, hallucinations, etc, and
agree with its direction to a large extent. But I, along with Ralph Stacey
in England (his book, "Managing the Unknowable" is where he addresses the
issue) have been argueing for 10 years that the concept of visioning is
outdated. Ralph suggests that it is used by executives as a way of ignoring
the more important issues of what is happening in the here and now.
My position on visioning starts with a recognition of three types being
practiced: 1) visions which attempt to be predictive of the future (What do
you predict your environment will look like in 10 years and what do you need
to adjust to fit in?); 2) wisions which really are value statements of how
people would like to work together; and 3) visions which attempt to create
the future (the post-modern, constructivist approach that is currently the
most popular).
The problem with the first type is that, as we've learned from studies of
chaos/complex systems theory, the future is unpredictable.
There are many problems with the second type. The most obvious is that the
history which allows it to be called a vision is based on the role of the
later biblical prophets and the later interpretation of calvinist theology:
if you follow these values, you will be rewarded. That is a prediction which
does not hold up in reality. Value statements do function well when they
represent the social contract concerning behavior within a group. But most
research that I've seen linking vision/values to successful organizations
are faulted - they are based only on a review of those organizations which
succeeded, and they ignored the many organizations following the same path
which failed.
The third type is what I see as the basic, entreprenurial model.
Statistically, it fails for the same reason as type two. The best
description of the end of this model is from Jurassic Park, in which the
Park's entreprenur states: "I grew up believing that if you believe strongly
enough in something and work hard enough, you can make it happen," while the
whole park is collapsing around him.
So the question becomes, what can we replace vision with in the strategic
process, instead of just redefining it all the time?
Mark Michaels
President, People Technologies
Michaels@ipat.com
To move a mountain, start with one pebble at a time.