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  • 1.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-06-1998 14:57
    On Sat, 5 Dec 1998 "Laurie A. Fitzgerald, PhD" wrote RE: Management &
    Measurement
    >
    >Greetings,
    >
    >Through the lens of Chaos, I have come to understand that control ---
    >whether we call it that or by its synonym "management" --- is
    >essentially an illusion. If that is so, and I for one am convinced it
    >is, then a new slant can be taken on Drucker's comment "What cannot be
    >measured, cannot be managed/controlled": If no thing can be
    >managed/controlled, perhaps the act of measurement is but a comforting
    >fiction...Werner Heisenberg has proven as much with his "Uncertainty
    >Principle." Your thought?
    >
    >Laurie

    Synonym, Not! There is more to management than control. In fact, good
    management includes the act of instilling in each individual the "rules for
    success" so that the group of individuals do not have to be "controlled."
    Good managers have understood why animals flock and geese fly in formation
    long before "chaos" theory became popular. (c.f. GE's emphasis on line
    manager training (plan, organize, integrate, measure) in the 1950's and the
    Air Force's experiences in getting fighter pilots to appreciate and adopt
    formation combat in the 1960's)

    Note that Drucker and Kelvin (and the many others to whom the saying is
    attributed) never said the obverse, namely, that "things that Are measured
    Can be controlled" Measurement is necessary but not sufficient.

    And measurement need not be fiction. As Phil Crosby, the Quality guru, has
    noted, "As organizations get larger it is difficult to know what is
    happening and darn near impossible to know what is not happening."
    Achievement reports tell you what is happening. Knowing what is not
    happening can be done by a-priori modeling of what is expected to happen
    and observing whether expectations are being realized. Thus the
    fundamental importance of plans.

    And Heisenberg said that "As the thing you want to measure gets
    infinitesimally small, then the act of measuring perturbs the position or
    velocity of the thing." Rather than the infinitesimally small world of
    Heisenberg you should note the same phenomenon under a different name --
    the Hawthorne Effect.

    If you do not equate management with control, there is a lot to be said
    about management. If you do equate management with control then you have
    to invent other terms for the rest of management --such as Leadership,
    Stewardship, Principle-Centered (anything), Mentoring, Coaching, Chaosship,
    etc. But understand "management" and this Tower of Babel is unnecessary
    (except for the promotion of book sales).

    Jack Ring
    32712 N. 70th St.
    Snottsdale, AZ 85262-7143
    sendmail: jring@amug.org
    602-488-4615
    Cell) 602.418.8784
    F)602-488-4616


  • 2.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-06-1998 16:59
    Jack Ring wrote:

    > Synonym, Not! There is more to management than control.

    Bravo! I couldn't agree more...

    > In fact, good
    > management includes the act of instilling in each individual the "rules for
    > success" so that the group of individuals do not have to be "controlled."

    On the other hand, I disagree about this relationship. Given what we now know
    about the complex behavior of systems such as our societies, our cultures, our
    markets, our economies and our corporations, there are no distinct "rules for
    success" that can render an organization's behavior 'neat and orderly' in any
    meaningful and productive way. My experience suggests that when you give
    people "real" rules (first principles that are relevant and meaningful when
    faced with the unknown or unfamiliar), the organization in which they
    particpate looks like anything except 'under control'! In fact, the common
    interpretation and application of traditional management, a la Peter Drucker
    and others, is wholly devoted to gaining control.

    > Good managers have understood why animals flock and geese fly in formation
    > long before "chaos" theory became popular. (c.f. GE's emphasis on line
    > manager training (plan, organize, integrate, measure) in the 1950's and the
    > Air Force's experiences in getting fighter pilots to appreciate and adopt
    > formation combat in the 1960's)
    >

    Those so-called 'good managers' are few and far between, often being those who
    were brave enough to break the rules they were taught in the first place! In
    spite of much of the GE rhetoric circulating these days, their 'management
    model' is seriously under attack these days--not by the corporation's
    renegades, but the market itself: their business model is substantially
    invalid in today's socio-economic environment.

    >And measurement need not be fiction. As Phil Crosby, the Quality guru, has

    > noted, "As organizations get larger it is difficult to know what is
    > happening and darn near impossible to know what is not happening."
    > Achievement reports tell you what is happening. Knowing what is not
    > happening can be done by a-priori modeling of what is expected to happen
    > and observing whether expectations are being realized. Thus the
    > fundamental importance of plans.

    Not so! Measurement is pure fiction. The vast majority of managers and their
    charges view plans as a statement of what must be acheived and not as a
    framework for gaining understanding of what works and what does not work.
    Invariably whole and important corporations, governments, cultures and
    communities have been lost throughout the ages by failing to understand the
    difference between maps and reality. True, planning is important, but only as
    a process devoted to developing an understanding of one's environment and the
    consequences of their interaction with that environment as a basis for making
    changes and adjustments. If managers perceive the consequence of a planning
    effort as the development of a plan to be adopted as 'the rules' to which
    workers must conform, their organizations will likely fail or most certainly be
    hastened to their demise.

    > And Heisenberg said that "As the thing you want to measure gets
    > infinitesimally small, then the act of measuring perturbs the position or
    > velocity of the thing." Rather than the infinitesimally small world of
    > Heisenberg you should note the same phenomenon under a different name --
    > the Hawthorne Effect.

    Heisenberg was myopic: the act of measurement effects everything, no matter
    how small. Humans just aren't well enough equipped yet to understand the
    nature and form of the effect. Nevertheless, several brilliant minds have been
    able to guide us in our knowing this to be essentially valid.

    > If you do not equate management with control, there is a lot to be said
    > about management. If you do equate management with control then you have
    > to invent other terms for the rest of management --such as Leadership,
    > Stewardship, Principle-Centered (anything), Mentoring, Coaching, Chaosship,
    > etc. But understand "management" and this Tower of Babel is unnecessary
    > (except for the promotion of book sales).

    Three cheers on these notes: "management" is indeed a broad topic that
    encompasses a myriad of inter-related theories, philosophies, practices,
    standards and actions. I believe the sooner we recognize that what we call
    management is itself a 'complex' system which must inherently be afforded the
    latitude to adapt and adjust to the ever-changing demands of its environment,
    the sooner we will find ourselves able to 'manage' our organizations in ways
    that are simultaneously attuned to the needs of individual human beings as well
    as theose of the human race as a whole.

    Cheers, Arnold J. Wytenburg


  • 3.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-07-1998 07:29
    Regarding the comments by Jack Ring and Arnold Wytenburg about
    the subject line above and, in particular, about control, the
    current issue of Harvard Business Review (Nov-Dec) carries a
    lengthy letter by yours truly about this exact topic. Those
    interested in management, measurement, empowerment, control,
    etc, might find it interesting.

    Fred Nickols, Executive Director
    Strategic Planning & Management Services
    Educational Testing Service [01-D]
    Princeton, NJ 08541
    Tel = 609.734.5077 Fax = 609.734.5590
    e-mail = fnickols@ets.org

    Views expressed are the author's, not ETS's.


  • 4.  Management and measurement

    Posted 12-07-1998 13:08
    Sun, 6 Dec 1998, Arnold Wytenburg wrote Re: Management and Measurement
    >
    >Jack Ring wrote:
    [...]
    >> In fact, good
    >> management includes the act of instilling in each individual the "rules for
    >> success" so that the group of individuals do not have to be "controlled."
    >
    >On the other hand, I disagree about this relationship. Given what we now know
    >about the complex behavior of systems such as our societies, our cultures, our
    >markets, our economies and our corporations, there are no distinct "rules for
    >success" that can render an organization's behavior 'neat and orderly' in any
    >meaningful and productive way. My experience suggests that when you give
    >people "real" rules (first principles that are relevant and meaningful when
    >faced with the unknown or unfamiliar), the organization in which they
    >particpate looks like anything except 'under control'! In fact, the common
    >interpretation and application of traditional management, a la Peter Drucker
    >and others, is wholly devoted to gaining control.

    I'll meet you half way. Given that we now know how to create emergent
    behavior by installing rules locally in the elements of the system (Craig
    Reynolds demonstrated this in 1987 with the BOIDS simulation. BOIDS may
    not have explained everything about the swooping flight patterns of
    starlings that bemused the poet, Colerige, in 1799 but close enough), it
    seems to me the question is whether we are smart enough to write the "rules
    for managers." I agree that we are not (at least I am not) but that does
    not invalidate the underlying system. Also, I do not consider 'neat and
    orderly' to be a typical characteristic of a successful organization.
    'Exploring and recouping' is a preferred behavior. As Prof. Azides has
    pointed out in Corporate Lifecycles, the 'neat and orderly' (or repetitive)
    organization is the non-improving and non-innovating organization. Thus,
    near death.

    I find it convenient to consider four styles of control; The Monarchy, the
    Oversight Committee, the Process Office and the Systemic or Embedded style.

    + The Monarch allows no action that is not directed from "HQ."
    + The Oversight Committee reviews past events, actions and outcomes and
    discerns which were appropriate and which not and then recommends new rules
    or guidance for such situations if they reoccur.
    + The Process Office, a more recent invention of the organizational
    psychologists, is similar to an Oversight Committee but is closer to the
    action thus does not suffer the time delays and chances of mis-information
    endemic to Oversight. However, they are still "riding shotgun" and not
    directly involved in the mission of the organization.
    + The fourth style, Systemic or Embedded, is quite different. It seeks
    "control from within" or, as Senge has said, "Control without Controlling."
    In this style, a manager ensures (by role modeling) that sufficient shared
    values (principles) and vision (purpose and meaning) exist and that each
    element has the fundamental behavior patterns needed to survive (plan,
    organize, integrate and measure is an upper level pattern and Plan, Do,
    Check, Adjust is a lower level pattern). Finally, he or she facilitates
    the setting of standards (goals and objectives) at a level that will ensure
    success in the face of competition, shortage of resources, and other
    adversities. It is this fourth style of management that chaos theory is
    re-describing but it has been around since the Halls of Montezuma and the
    Shores of Tripoli.

    And the last time I heard Drucker he was talking about controlling without
    control. Clearly, we have a lot of learning to do about what to embed in
    the individuals who comprise the organization. But the point is, such
    embedding, avoiding the time delays and mis-information of an external
    controller, is the right way to go.

    >> Good managers have understood why animals flock and geese fly in formation
    >> long before "chaos" theory became popular. (c.f. GE's emphasis on line
    >> manager training (plan, organize, integrate, measure) in the 1950's and the
    >> Air Force's experiences in getting fighter pilots to appreciate and adopt
    >> formation combat in the 1960's)
    >>
    >
    >Those so-called 'good managers' are few and far between, often being those who
    >were brave enough to break the rules they were taught in the first place! In
    >spite of much of the GE rhetoric circulating these days, their 'management
    >model' is seriously under attack these days--not by the corporation's
    >renegades, but the market itself: their business model is substantially
    >invalid in today's socio-economic environment.

    Time warp. I was speaking of the GE of the 1950's, not the GE of today.
    However, I am intrigued by your view of their current shortcomings and
    would like to hear more.

    >>And measurement need not be fiction. As Phil Crosby, the Quality guru, has
    >> noted, "As organizations get larger it is difficult to know what is
    >> happening and darn near impossible to know what is not happening."
    >> Achievement reports tell you what is happening. Knowing what is not
    >> happening can be done by a-priori modeling of what is expected to happen
    >> and observing whether expectations are being realized. Thus the
    >> fundamental importance of plans.
    >
    >Not so! Measurement is pure fiction. The vast majority of managers and their
    >charges view plans as a statement of what must be acheived and not as a
    >framework for gaining understanding of what works and what does not work.

    I understand that there are more B, C and D students than A students. And
    certainly a concert by a middle-school band does not give one a good
    impression of the musical talent of John Phillip Sousa. But what the vast
    majority does with the idea is not an indictment of the idea.

    >Invariably whole and important corporations, governments, cultures and
    >communities have been lost throughout the ages by failing to understand the
    >difference between maps and reality. True, planning is important, but only as
    >a process devoted to developing an understanding of one's environment and the
    >consequences of their interaction with that environment as a basis for making
    >changes and adjustments. If managers perceive the consequence of a planning
    >effort as the development of a plan to be adopted as 'the rules' to which
    >workers must conform, their organizations will likely fail or most certainly be
    >hastened to their demise.

    Aha! The foregoing, well said, should be in the curriculum of every
    managment course. Is it?

    [...]
    >Three cheers on these notes: "management" is indeed a broad topic that
    >encompasses a myriad of inter-related theories, philosophies, practices,
    >standards and actions. I believe the sooner we recognize that what we call
    >management is itself a 'complex' system which must inherently be afforded the
    >latitude to adapt and adjust to the ever-changing demands of its environment,
    >the sooner we will find ourselves able to 'manage' our organizations in ways
    >that are simultaneously attuned to the needs of individual human beings as well
    >as theose of the human race as a whole.

    Well said, again. That is what management is supposed to do.

    ps. "a myriad of" will get you a D- in your English class. ;-)


    Jack Ring
    32712 N. 70th St.
    Snottsdale, AZ 85262-7143
    sendmail: jring@amug.org
    602-488-4615
    Cell) 602.418.8784
    F)602-488-4616


  • 5.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-07-1998 14:59
    In a message dated 98-12-06 17:18:37 EST, you [arnold@originalthinking.com
    (Arnold Wytenburg)] write:

    << On the other hand, I disagree about this relationship. Given what we now
    know
    about the complex behavior of systems such as our societies, our cultures,
    our
    markets, our economies and our corporations, there are no distinct "rules for
    success" that can render an organization's behavior 'neat and orderly' in any
    meaningful and productive way. My experience suggests that when you give
    people "real" rules (first principles that are relevant and meaningful when
    faced with the unknown or unfamiliar), the organization in which they
    particpate looks like anything except 'under control'! In fact, the common
    interpretation and application of traditional management, a la Peter Drucker
    and others, is wholly devoted to gaining control.
    >>
    I am confused. When you say 'looks like anything except 'under control'!' do
    you mean that it is NOT under control, or do you mean that it MIGHT be under
    control and possibly under better, though shared, control, than if it LOOKED
    as though it were 'under control'?

    Personally, I believe that an organization in which everyone applies sound,
    shared guideline QUESTIONS, which remind of all the issues that should be
    considered in decisions and stimulate creative thought, is likely to be under
    better control than one that has strict 'control' rules, guidelines, and/or
    procedure manuals/forms/etc. (If you forgive the plug, such guideline
    queations are discussed in depth in the book High Quality Leadership:
    Practical Guidelines to Becoming a More Effective Manager. Milwaukee, WI: ASQ
    Quality Press, 1998 by John Washbush and myself)

    Erwin (Rausch)


  • 6.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-08-1998 09:32
    Erwin Rausch wrote:

    > I am confused. When you say 'looks like anything except 'under control'!' do
    > you mean that it is NOT under control, or do you mean that it MIGHT be under
    > control and possibly under better, though shared, control, than if it LOOKED
    > as though it were 'under control'?

    > Personally, I believe that an organization in which everyone applies sound,
    > shared guideline QUESTIONS, which remind of all the issues that should be
    > considered in decisions and stimulate creative thought, is likely to be under
    > better control than one that has strict 'control' rules, guidelines, and/or
    > procedure manuals/forms/etc.

    You seem to have captured the nuance that so many in management miss completely.
    In my experiences with many corporations around the globe, both large and small,
    I've found that a great deal of energy and focus is devoted to creating and
    maintaining the illusion of control. The popular version of that concept of
    control is (at least) two-fold. First, it is consistent with a single viewpoint,
    usually that of the 'leader', and second, it must be maintained and sustained for
    as long as that leader holds his or her viewpoint as being the single 'right' way
    of doing things. Please don't misunderstand me: I'm not suggesting we simply
    give ourselves over to chaos and let our organizations fall into a state of
    potential anarchy. I am suggesting, however, that we need to explore and exploit
    management models which allow organizations to exist in a state of extreme
    flexibility .

    And thatnks for the lead to your book. I'll be looking for it.

    Cheers, Arnold J. Wytenburg


  • 7.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-09-1998 00:10
    Since this is a forum for discussion of management issues, let's stretch
    the envelope a bit and look at the roles of planning in entrepreneurial
    behavior. Amar Bhide, at Harvard has done some provocative work debunking
    our control-oriented predilection for pushing entrepreneurs through things
    called Business Plans (articles in HBR, 1986, 1994). His work shows pretty
    clearly that the presence of a formal plan is not a success indicator.

    Yet we continue to believe that the exercise of planning has substantial
    heuristic merit. ENT and other business profs. all over the world remain
    committed to the idea that working students through the process of
    measuring and forecasting business results, at the enterprise, SBU, or
    product levels will improve their abilities to manage real processes. The
    planning exercise is a simulation, but how good is it as a way of preparing
    for real management challenges? My experience this week has led me to
    wonder if we're really asking the right questions.

    I've just collected about 25 proto-plans from students in my 3rd year class
    on entrepreneurship. Over the last two weeks I've had them draw up what I
    called New Venture Maps. Using the outline of a business plan, they were
    told to fill in the parts they already know. ("If you were going to start
    a business next year, what would it be?" -- that's a question that
    immediately triggers all kinds of existing emotions and knowledge; it's far
    from a blank sheet.) Then they were to use the knowledge gained in the
    first 12 weeks of the course to identify the soft parts of this Map, and to
    sketch out a little work plan that would help them fill in the blanks.
    Finally, I asked them to run a best-estimate set of numbers through some
    basic financial spreadsheets (Balance Sheet, Income statements for 5 years,
    Cash Flow to break-even) so they could see how those things work, and their
    relation to the buisnes model in the Map. I figured it would take them
    about 10-15 hours.

    WRONG!! Most seem to have put in 30-50 hours, and are still far from
    satisfied. I told them I wanted a rough first draft, no new research,
    maybe 10% of what a final, acceptable Plan would look like. But they don't
    seem to have listened to those caveats! Granted, some of that extra effort
    is because they are passionately involved with the subject, but there seems
    to be something more going on here.

    Earlier comments from Jack, Erwin, and Arnold have touched on the issue of
    leading questions which stimulate learners to pursue greater knowledge.
    There's something about this exercise in figuring out the basic operation
    of a new business that seems to have a minimum threshhold to it, one these
    students are fighting to get over. They found, for example, that when they
    didn't like the Net Income numbers, they had to go back and rethink
    substantial chunks of the business model. Having done that, they had to
    rethink their cost and compensation structures, and then had to redo their
    cash flows. And on it went, apparently ad infinitum, over the week-end.
    The levels of uncertainty on their rough cuts were simply unacceptable to
    the vast majority of them.

    I've been appalled at how this little learning exercise has gotten out of
    hand, squeezing some students' exam preparation and other assignments. At
    the same time, I think these students have learned a tremendous amount
    about business.

    Can we revisit the "controlled chaos" discussion a bit? What do we know
    about managing the degree of chaos we unleash with learning exercises?
    When is "a little knowledge"' simply not enough? Why does curiosity
    sometimes overwhelm us? How do we, really, pace a learning process?

    Tom Bryant.

    +/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+
    Prof. Thomas A. Bryant, Ph.D., Visiting Professor and
    State of New Jersey Chair in Small Business & Entrepreneurship
    Faculty of Management, MEC 326
    Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
    111 Washington Avenue, NEWARK, NJ 07102-3027 U.S.A.
    Tel: (973) 353-1062; Fax: (973) 353-1664
    e-mail: tabryant@andromeda.rutgers.edu


  • 8.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-09-1998 13:31
    Tom, you put a finger on your students intolerance for ambiguity, which many
    see in MBA students. I personally think that it reveals a lack of experience,
    of trying to operate in what cognitive psychology terms an "ill-structured" (to
    them) problem domain. For example, I have had students try and be price about
    expenses and have to tell them not to worry too munch, that they will keep to
    budget by MANAGING their expenses and cutting costs if sales don't take off as
    early as anticipated. Emphasizing and articulating the process that they will
    go through helps a little. More recently, I had the opportunity to review some
    real world business plans submitted for funding and wished that they were
    available to students to analyze and understand why most were rejected. Getting
    a feel for the numbers and misfits may also help reduce uncertainty.

    But most importantly, the management skills that you are teaching really matter
    the most in years 3-7, if the business takes off. Until then, getting customers
    and building the business is THE critical success factor and (not) keeping an
    eye on cash flow probably the big failure factor. Entrepreneurs hit the wall
    when the span of control exceeds one persons grasp and they have to run the
    business professionally. That is when your planning may pay off. Early
    (start-up) planning, it seems to me, best helps to shape thinking about how the
    organization will be structured and operated after the management
    professionalizes. I always liked the story of Compaq Computer planning to
    become a Fortune 500 co. and creating an org. chart which they later filled in
    with names as each was hired. That planning helped them move from 3 people to
    $500 million in sales after the first year.

    Maybe you are on the right track after all, but don't see entrepreneurship
    class as a long-term payoff. A good analogy might be teaching portfolio theory
    to budding financiers who start up a mutual fund. The portfolio theory payoff
    is over the long-term and probably won't affect their first year performance
    that much. A little luck helps start-up funds and businesses, but long-run
    performance is helped by a cluster of superior management skills.
    --
    Prof. John L. Naman naman+@pitt.edu


  • 9.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-09-1998 21:25
    Hi,
    While responding to the questions that Tom puts I am wearing two hats - one as
    a lecturer and member of a university faculty, and the other as an
    owner/manager of a small business.

    I must be very honest and admit that for over a decade I have constantly failed
    to practice what I've preached. I've taught management in both the public and
    private sectors and in doing so have stuck to the same old principles that have
    changed little in the last one hundred years. I've taught planning and
    controlling, and the importance of having a good, solid business plan with
    which to drive one's business, but I've never had a good, solid business plan
    myself. And my business is doing very well thank you very much (nearly
    $2million income last year alone - over $3million in the last eighteen months).

    The secret, I believe, is in the fact that I don't teach the theories of good
    management. I've actually been part of teams that have gone out into the
    workplace and identified the skills and knowledge that the best and most
    successful people have been applying - and both taught and copied them. And
    most of the people I've taught (and they have all been from the business, not
    education, sector) are also doing very well thank you very much. One person
    wrote saying that she had earned an increase of $3million simply by doing one
    or two things differently in her planning processes - and she earned this at a
    stroke of a pen, not over a given period.

    One of the most important lessons I've learned is that the people who get most
    excited about good, solid business plans are the accountants and bankers.
    Neither of them will approve expenditure or loans unless a plan is created that
    details everything that the business owner is planning to do and how he/she
    plans to fund it. These plans can sometimes takes weeks or months to develop
    and in the meantime the business owner or manager has to continue running a
    business and make enough money to pay the bills. I know of many small business
    owners who have long ago decided that tenacity and courage far outweighs a good
    business plan - mostly because they can't see the need for one.

    In my own business I take the tack of having a clear vision of what I want to
    do and where I want to go. How I get there is never so clear because my
    business balances on keeping up with latest trends and ideas, and I haven't got
    a clue what these are going to be until I come across them. Furthermore, my
    business relies on my ability to make decisions based on information I haven't
    got yet - and may not have until I've discovered other information that only
    comes from information I am working with now. And just thinking about that
    excites the pants off me because it means that every day is different, every
    transaction is different, every customer is different, and tomorrow is going to
    be more wonderful than yesterday, but nowhere near as wonderful as the day
    after.

    Personally, I think business plans have seen their day. Success doesn't come
    from planning, it comes from putting the plan into action. I've known many good
    planners who never moved beyond their plan. In fact, not so long ago I was
    working with one small business owner who lamented the fact that even though he
    had a good solid business plan, one that his bank was willing to lend him
    hundreds of thousands of dollars on, he was still going broke. He was convinced
    that the only thing that would ensure his success was to have a good plan -
    nobody told him that the plan must be something that realistically helps him
    get through the day.

    Just a couple of thoughts

    Phil Rutherford


    Tom Bryant wrote:

    > Since this is a forum for discussion of management issues, let's stretch
    > the envelope a bit and look at the roles of planning in entrepreneurial
    > behavior. Amar Bhide, at Harvard has done some provocative work debunking
    > our control-oriented predilection for pushing entrepreneurs through things
    > called Business Plans (articles in HBR, 1986, 1994). His work shows pretty
    > clearly that the presence of a formal plan is not a success indicator.
    >
    > Yet we continue to believe that the exercise of planning has substantial
    > heuristic merit. ENT and other business profs. all over the world remain
    > committed to the idea that working students through the process of
    > measuring and forecasting business results, at the enterprise, SBU, or
    > product levels will improve their abilities to manage real processes. The
    > planning exercise is a simulation, but how good is it as a way of preparing
    > for real management challenges? My experience this week has led me to
    > wonder if we're really asking the right questions.
    >
    > I've just collected about 25 proto-plans from students in my 3rd year class
    > on entrepreneurship. Over the last two weeks I've had them draw up what I
    > called New Venture Maps. Using the outline of a business plan, they were
    > told to fill in the parts they already know. ("If you were going to start
    > a business next year, what would it be?" -- that's a question that
    > immediately triggers all kinds of existing emotions and knowledge; it's far
    > from a blank sheet.) Then they were to use the knowledge gained in the
    > first 12 weeks of the course to identify the soft parts of this Map, and to
    > sketch out a little work plan that would help them fill in the blanks.
    > Finally, I asked them to run a best-estimate set of numbers through some
    > basic financial spreadsheets (Balance Sheet, Income statements for 5 years,
    > Cash Flow to break-even) so they could see how those things work, and their
    > relation to the buisnes model in the Map. I figured it would take them
    > about 10-15 hours.
    >
    > WRONG!! Most seem to have put in 30-50 hours, and are still far from
    > satisfied. I told them I wanted a rough first draft, no new research,
    > maybe 10% of what a final, acceptable Plan would look like. But they don't
    > seem to have listened to those caveats! Granted, some of that extra effort
    > is because they are passionately involved with the subject, but there seems
    > to be something more going on here.
    >
    > Earlier comments from Jack, Erwin, and Arnold have touched on the issue of
    > leading questions which stimulate learners to pursue greater knowledge.
    > There's something about this exercise in figuring out the basic operation
    > of a new business that seems to have a minimum threshhold to it, one these
    > students are fighting to get over. They found, for example, that when they
    > didn't like the Net Income numbers, they had to go back and rethink
    > substantial chunks of the business model. Having done that, they had to
    > rethink their cost and compensation structures, and then had to redo their
    > cash flows. And on it went, apparently ad infinitum, over the week-end.
    > The levels of uncertainty on their rough cuts were simply unacceptable to
    > the vast majority of them.
    >
    > I've been appalled at how this little learning exercise has gotten out of
    > hand, squeezing some students' exam preparation and other assignments. At
    > the same time, I think these students have learned a tremendous amount
    > about business.
    >
    > Can we revisit the "controlled chaos" discussion a bit? What do we know
    > about managing the degree of chaos we unleash with learning exercises?
    > When is "a little knowledge"' simply not enough? Why does curiosity
    > sometimes overwhelm us? How do we, really, pace a learning process?
    >
    > Tom Bryant.
    >
    > +/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+/+
    > Prof. Thomas A. Bryant, Ph.D., Visiting Professor and
    > State of New Jersey Chair in Small Business & Entrepreneurship
    > Faculty of Management, MEC 326
    > Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
    > 111 Washington Avenue, NEWARK, NJ 07102-3027 U.S.A.
    > Tel: (973) 353-1062; Fax: (973) 353-1664
    > e-mail: tabryant@andromeda.rutgers.edu


  • 10.  Management and Measurement

    Posted 12-09-1998 23:59
    Phil Rutherford wrote: "Personally, I think business plans have seen their day."

    Two marine-based analogies may shed an interesting light on this statement:

    - Coastal navigation may not require "plans"; but what about deep blue journeys?
    - It is when the whether turns into a gale that one misses the plans he /
    she has not done.

    Daniel Pratas

    (No accountant; no sailor either)