Colleagues,
Tom Bryant wrote: "If time is accelerating, and has been since the
beginning of time, what now is the slope of the curve? What happens when it
becomes vertical -- does the world end? Didn't someone 2,000 years ago
think it was nearly vertical? But it wasn't, hindsight
clearly tells us. Is it nearly vertical now?"
First, this whole discussion needs to be reframed. Time is a background
constant.
Change is accelerating.
Accelerating change seems to compress time.
About the slope of the curve: If we measure change in terms of human
experience, then change has been virtually flat since our evolution from
earlier species. Just two generations ago, you could learn by age 15 all
you needed to know to make a living, whether by farming, carpentry,
soldiering or any of a number of professions. Lawyering and doctoring took
a bit more learning, but not life-long learning.
Today, we all expect our jobs to change totally several times in our
lifetimes. (I realize I'm speaking to those in a protected environment,
university education, yet even you face change.)
If we look at technological change, the line was virtually flat until around
1850 when a number of key inventions were made. That curve has accelerated
ever since. You do recall Toffler's Future Shock don't you?
Another of you mentioned tools. We humans are pretty good change agents in
ourselves, yet when we add tools, we juice up change again. Consider the
tool I'm using now that allows us to share our ideas with strangers around
the world.
Communication accelerates change. Sharing of ideas changes the way we
think.
And population growth accelerates change. Just one example: The number of
scientists and engineers has grown slowly in the last 100 years, as a
percentage of population, but the sixfold growth in population means we've
got perhaps 100 times as many inventive minds out there changing the way we
live.
Change is accelerating and won't stop. The current issue of Fast Company
relates a story of two people chatting. One complains about the Internet
raising chaos in his industry. He asks, "When will this Internet thing
settle down." His partner answers, "It won't." I agree, and so do you.
We do have to worry about the slope.
CRITICAL CONDITION: If the slope of the curve of change gets higher than
our abilities to learn, we as a human race are in trouble. Our learning
curve is high when we are young, then lower as we grow older. Young people
have no trouble with the current pace of change. People my age do.
If the rate of change goes so high that even young people can't keep up, our
species is in trouble. If an eight-year old child can't recognize his/her
environment a year later, we will fail as a civilization.
Gary
THE WAY OF CHANGE. I've been working on this book on change for several
years. It is a philosophy, not a business book. It is complete in
pre-publication form, though I know of some changes I will make in another
edit.
I will share this book electronically with anyone willing to do a review of
it. If you wish to participate, please respond directly to me, not via the
listserv. I will need your full name, organization, title, contact
information, and an indication that you will actually complete a review.
The only payment I can give you is access to my thinking and a complimentary
copy when published.
G
----------------------------
Dr. Gary Lundquist -- The Scientist-Philosopher
Author of: THE WAY OF CHANGE
Change will never, ever again be as slow as it is today.
Garyl@market-engineering.com
Market Engineering International, Inc.
The Bridge Between Science and Marketing
www.market-engineering.com
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