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any other examples of a bad decision...........?

  • 1.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-16-1999 17:58
    on 12/13/99 9:30 PM, Automatic digest processor at
    LISTSERV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU wrote:

    > But if anyone has any other examples of a bad decision...........?
    >
    > John Naylor
    > Liverpool Business School
    My personal favorites include

    - HP telling its employee Steve Wozniak that there was no market for a
    personal computer

    - Xerox failing to turn the inventions of its Palo Alto Research Center into
    products. These inventions include the personal computer, the mouse and the
    graphic user interface.

    - Apple ignoring a letter from Bill Gates suggesting that they work together
    to make the Mac operating system the industry standard instead of
    DOS/Windows.

    Don McCormick, Ph.D., Associate Professor
    Department of Management and Business
    Alfred North Whitehead College, University of Redlands
    1200 E. Colton Avenue, Redlands, CA 92373-0999 (909) 748-6249
    mccormic@uor.edu
    http://newton.uor.edu/FacultyFolder/DMcCormick/DMcCormick.html


  • 2.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 04:52
    I have just remembered another one.

    Decca turned down the Beatles, telling them that there was no future
    for four-man bands with drums and guitars.

    Most of the examples given to the list so far appear to me to result,
    at least partially, from decisions taken without reliable market or
    background information. Opportunities and risks were not assessed
    properly if at all.

    In the Decca example, all they had to do was survey a sample of young
    people.

    Regards
    Dave Stewardson
    ISRU {Industrial Statistics Research Unit}
    MMME {Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering}
    Stephenson Building
    University of Newcastle upon Tyne
    Tyne & Wear
    England
    GB - NE1 7RU
    TEL 00 44 191 222 6244
    FAX 00 44 191 222 7365


  • 3.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 05:04
    ON the topic of bad decision, I have a couple of questions and one fundamental
    one.

    Is there a way for one to know a priory where a resolution is going to lead in
    the future? Is there a way to know the distortions in our assessments dew to
    opportunities and risks one is ignorant of? What can be done to know a priory
    the impact of a resolution and the repercussions in the future?

    My sense is that in the moment we make resolutions and it is only after we have
    seen the development in time that we can judge a resolution as good or bad.

    The fundamental question being, How can we remove the distortions in our
    assessments a priory? Or are we bound to an existence of surprises both good and
    bad.

    Saludos Esteban


  • 4.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 11:12
    ESTEBAN TREVI�O MUGUERZA wrote:
    >
    > ON the topic of bad decision, I have a couple of questions and one fundamental
    > one.
    >
    > Is there a way for one to know a priory where a resolution is going to lead in
    > the future? Is there a way to know the distortions in our assessments dew to
    > opportunities and risks one is ignorant of? What can be done to know a priory
    > the impact of a resolution and the repercussions in the future?
    >
    > Saludos Esteban

    One possibility to help avoid bad decisions might be to do
    a critical success factors interview and analysis.

    Jim Dobbins


  • 5.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 13:43
    I think Dave is raising a very important point: It is easy to apply 20/20
    hindsight to decisions and see that they were bad ones (as the extended
    lists posted so far illustrate). The difficulty is to figure out what
    types of information the decision makers failed to gather or to take into
    account and how do you train future managers to not make those same
    failures.

    By the way, another classic bad decision is the Catholic Church's decision
    to condemn Galileo. It took hundreds of years for them to correct that
    one.

    Steve Harper
    ============================================
    PRAGMATEK Consulting Group, Ltd.
    Steve.Harper@pragmatek.com
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---------------
    "Technology . . . is a queer thing. It brings you great gifts with one
    hand, and it stabs you in the back with the other."
    -- C.P. Snow
    ============================================


    -----Original Message-----
    From: Dave Stewardson [SMTP:D.J.Stewardson@NCL.AC.UK]
    Sent: Friday, December 17, 1999 4:52 AM
    To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
    Subject: Re: any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    I have just remembered another one.

    Decca turned down the Beatles, telling them that there was no future
    for four-man bands with drums and guitars.

    Most of the examples given to the list so far appear to me to result,
    at least partially, from decisions taken without reliable market or
    background information. Opportunities and risks were not assessed
    properly if at all.

    In the Decca example, all they had to do was survey a sample of young
    people.

    Regards
    Dave Stewardson
    ISRU {Industrial Statistics Research Unit}
    MMME {Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering}
    Stephenson Building
    University of Newcastle upon Tyne
    Tyne & Wear
    England
    GB - NE1 7RU
    TEL 00 44 191 222 6244
    FAX 00 44 191 222 7365


  • 6.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 14:10
    Commenting on Esteban's question...
    When I started all this I was trying to get away from using consequences to
    assess decisions. (You've seen 'The 75 greatest business decisions' ?)
    Many decisions recognise risk and/or uncertainty. A good decision tries to
    cope with these by mitigating their consequences. Diversification spreads
    the load, otherwise one can use insurance etc etc. Then there's Plan B, and
    if that fails Plan C, and so on.
    The point is not to bet half the company on a hunch.
    Unfortunately for this rational view, some of the most celebrated successes
    resulted from choices that went completely against the grain. Playing the
    17th at St Andrews, most take an extra shot to go round the hotel. Fame
    comes to those who drive over ........... and win. Ballasteros won the
    British Open one year with a ludicrous shot from the car park.
    John


  • 7.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 15:40
    I believe it was Einstein who said something to the effect that we
    cannot solve a problem on the same level it was created. It seems
    almost by its very nature to be confirmed by hindsight.

    I don't think anyone sets out to make a bad decision. Group think
    exists not because people don't recognize that a bad decision is being
    made, but other dynamics prevent them from challenging the "authority".
    We could analyze the thinking process (i.e. using Edward deBono's black
    hat, red hat, etc.), and conclude that the outcomes we want are not in
    the offering, but there are other (hidden agendas) predispositions,
    biases, wishes, etc., that are perhaps unstated yet desired outcomes.

    At times, it is a question of honesty. Is the person making the
    decision really honest with the participants? Sometimes they are being
    deliberately misled, and stroking one's ego may be more important as the
    real desired outcome.

    At other times, you have to judge the decision within the context it was
    made. It may be the best available decision, given the information
    available. In hindsight, with the addition of new information, the
    original decision might appear to us to be "bad".

    Perhaps we ought to define up-front what is meant by a "bad" decision.
    What criteria will we use to evaluate it (1) in context, and (2) in
    hindsight.
    Bob

    Steve Harper wrote:
    >
    > I think Dave is raising a very important point: It is easy to apply 20/20
    > hindsight to decisions and see that they were bad ones (as the extended
    > lists posted so far illustrate). The difficulty is to figure out what
    > types of information the decision makers failed to gather or to take into
    > account and how do you train future managers to not make those same
    > failures.
    >
    > By the way, another classic bad decision is the Catholic Church's decision
    > to condemn Galileo. It took hundreds of years for them to correct that
    > one.
    >
    > Steve Harper
    >


  • 8.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 16:00
    There is also a significant cultural dimension to the decision making
    process. In countries like India, for example, where family ties are
    extremely important, the extended familial relationships (e.g. first,
    second, third cousins thrice removed) within a given decision-making body
    may have a greater impact on the final decision than the merits of the
    decision itself. This begs the basic question: What is a "bad" decision?

    Steve Harper
    ============================================
    PRAGMATEK Consulting Group, Ltd.
    Steve.Harper@pragmatek.com
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    ---------------
    "Technology . . . is a queer thing. It brings you great gifts with one
    hand, and it stabs you in the back with the other."
    -- C.P. Snow
    ============================================


  • 9.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 17:58
    In a message dated 99-12-17 04:52:17 EST, you write:

    << Decca turned down the Beatles, >>
    I believe it was RCA. Decca was the Beatles label.

    R


  • 10.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-17-1999 19:32
    On 17 Dec 99, at 17:57, Richard Lynch wrote:

    > In a message dated 99-12-17 04:52:17 EST, you write:
    >
    > << Decca turned down the Beatles, >>
    > I believe it was RCA. Decca was the Beatles label.

    Ummm...I believe Beatles releases in N.A. were by Capital, then of
    course Apple.

    Don't know where Decca fits.



    Visit the work911.com supersite at http://www.work911.com
    for work related articles, or to find almost anything including
    book reviews and suggestions, discussion lists and more.


  • 11.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-18-1999 09:33
    On Fri, 17 Dec 1999, Steve Harper wrote:

    > There is also a significant cultural dimension to the decision making
    > process. In countries like India, for example, where family ties are
    > extremely important, the extended familial relationships (e.g. first,
    > second, third cousins thrice removed) within a given decision-making
    body
    > may have a greater impact on the final decision than the merits of the
    > decision itself. This begs the basic question: What is a "bad" decision?

    It strikes me that you could ask the same question about a decision that
    resulted from groupthink. At the time of the decision-making, to the
    decision-makers, the relationships within the group were more important
    than articulating diverse views. Does this have to do with the relative
    importance of the present (i.e. relationships) and the future (i.e.
    consequences of the decision) in an individual's mind (and heart) at a
    given point in time?

    Taking this a step further, if Elliott Jaques and others are right that
    our ability to project out into the future grows with age, is age a
    variable in the nature of decision-making, that is, how we weigh these
    factors?

    R
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ruth H. Axelrod | Words are, of course,
    Organizational Behavior & Development | the most powerful drug
    The George Washington University | used by mankind.
    2115 G Street, NW, Monroe 403 |
    Washington, DC 20052 | Rudyard Kipling
    (H/O) 301-593-4938 |
    (F) 202-994-4930 |
    Mailto: raxelrod@gwu.edu |
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    On Fri, 17 Dec 1999, Steve Harper wrote:

    > There is also a significant cultural dimension to the decision making
    > process. In countries like India, for example, where family ties are
    > extremely important, the extended familial relationships (e.g. first,
    > second, third cousins thrice removed) within a given decision-making body
    > may have a greater impact on the final decision than the merits of the
    > decision itself. This begs the basic question: What is a "bad" decision?
    >
    > Steve Harper
    > ============================================
    > PRAGMATEK Consulting Group, Ltd.
    > Steve.Harper@pragmatek.com
    > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
    > ---------------
    > "Technology . . . is a queer thing. It brings you great gifts with one
    > hand, and it stabs you in the back with the other."
    > -- C.P. Snow
    > ============================================
    >


  • 12.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-18-1999 14:53
    Ruth Axelrod wrote...

    >Taking this a step further, if Elliott Jaques and others are right that
    >our ability to project out into the future grows with age, is age a
    >variable in the nature of decision-making, that is, how we weigh these
    >factors?

    What's a good source for the Jaques comment, Ruth? I'd like to look into it.
    Fred Nickols
    The Distance Consulting Company
    "Assistance at A Distance"
    http://home.att.net/~nickols/distance.htm
    nickols@worldnet.att.net
    (609) 490-0095


  • 13.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-18-1999 19:35
    Fred--

    Take a look at "Human Capability" by Elliott Jaques and Kathryn Cason,
    Cason Hall, 1994, or "Requisitie Organization", by Jaques, Cason Hall,
    1989. The stuff represents radical thinking out of the accepted,
    democratic paradigm but is very well supported by research data in a
    number of large organizations. You can reach the publisher at
    800-448-7357.

    Ruth
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Ruth H. Axelrod | Words are, of course,
    Organizational Behavior & Development | the most powerful drug
    The George Washington University | used by mankind.
    2115 G Street, NW, Monroe 403 |
    Washington, DC 20052 | Rudyard Kipling
    (H/O) 301-593-4938 |
    (F) 202-994-4930 |
    Mailto: raxelrod@gwu.edu |
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------

    On Sat, 18 Dec 1999, Fred Nickols wrote:

    > Ruth Axelrod wrote...
    >
    > >Taking this a step further, if Elliott Jaques and others are right that
    > >our ability to project out into the future grows with age, is age a
    > >variable in the nature of decision-making, that is, how we weigh these
    > >factors?
    >
    > What's a good source for the Jaques comment, Ruth? I'd like to look into it.
    > Fred Nickols
    > The Distance Consulting Company
    > "Assistance at A Distance"
    > http://home.att.net/~nickols/distance.htm
    > nickols@worldnet.att.net
    > (609) 490-0095
    >


  • 14.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-19-1999 22:24
    John Naylor wrote:

    > Commenting on Esteban's question...
    > When I started all this I was trying to get away from using
    > consequences to
    > assess decisions. (You've seen 'The 75 greatest business decisions' ?)
    >
    > Many decisions recognise risk and/or uncertainty. A good decision
    > tries to
    > cope with these by mitigating their consequences. Diversification
    > spreads
    > the load, otherwise one can use insurance etc etc. Then there's Plan
    > B, and
    > if that fails Plan C, and so on.
    > The point is not to bet half the company on a hunch.
    > Unfortunately for this rational view, some of the most celebrated
    > successes
    > resulted from choices that went completely against the grain. Playing
    > the
    > 17th at St Andrews, most take an extra shot to go round the hotel.
    > Fame
    > comes to those who drive over ........... and win. Ballasteros won the
    >
    > British Open one year with a ludicrous shot from the car park.
    > John

    The golfer who risks all (or most) on a shot over the hotel has chosen
    the high loss - high gain path. In essence, this person bets that they
    have the capability to pull it off. How many players try, and fail?
    How many do not try at all?

    Babe Ruth, the great American baseball player, hit a phenomenal 60+ home
    runs in one year. He struck out more often than other players, as
    well. Someone else can put the exact numbers on that record.

    We tend to forget the folks who hit for the stands, and missed.

    Could we not say that the 'rational' view cited above aims to minimize
    the standard deviation of the result, settling for a steady positive
    gain? Then those who aim higher, at greater risk, have a larger
    standard deviation. With luck, they also have a positive gain, on
    average. When we cull out those who aim high but miss on the early
    tries, the long term record would favor grand gesture. The celebrated
    successes would thus be censored data, and misleading at that.

    Even so, we still have to have someone who believes they can make a shot
    over the hotel. Or get IBM into the integrated circuit business with
    the System 360 at a time that IC's were hardly tried, much less true.

    Jay
    --
    Jay Warner
    Principal Scientist
    Warner Consulting, Inc.
    4444 North Green Bay Road
    Racine, WI 53404-1216
    USA

    Ph: (262) 634-9100
    FAX: (262) 681-1133
    email: quality@a2q.com
    web: http://www.a2q.com

    The A2Q Method (tm). What do you want to improve today?


  • 15.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-20-1999 11:09
    - General Motors attempting to market and sell the Chevy Nova brand name
    in Latin & South America. "No va" in Spanish is "no go."

    Another one -- with tragic consequences -- was NASA's decision to use a
    100% oxygen atmosphere inside manned space capsules. They used it all
    through Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo 1.

    Bill Stetar
    University of Tennessee Center for Industrial Services
    Tennessee Manufacturing Extension Program
    email: bstetar@utk.edu
    URL: http://www.cis.utk.edu

    Gettin' good players is easy. Gettin' 'em to play together is the hard
    part.
    - Casey Stengel


  • 16.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-20-1999 16:19
    Jay,

    Thank you for a most thoughtful post.

    It reminds me of a concept that helped me to gain new perspective on
    "top" performance: regression to the norm, i.e. - in performance terms,
    behavior will move to a norm, In other words, outstanding behavior will
    be balanced by lukewarm or poor behavior to maintain a norm.

    When I learned this concept many years ago, it helped me see that an
    expectation or demand for constant "top" performance is unreasonable -
    unless that "norm" is defined at "top"performance, e.g. Michael Jordan.
    I saw that a more useful focus point on determining expectations of a
    performer is the "norm" of his/her performance. That perspective, in
    turn, made it easier to forgive the honest mistake or low performance
    that came after "top" performance because I saw them as a cost exacted
    for that "top" performance. .

    If one subscribes to the idea that performance is predicated on risk
    and risk is predicated on trust, then it follows that great risk can
    bring great performance. However, regression to the norm tells us that
    the great performance will be counter-balanced by a lesser - or a series
    of "lesser" - performances. (Of course, "lesser" is in the eye of the
    beholder. The "lesser" performance of a maestro may be far superior
    than the 'top" performance of the student. However, that is
    understandable because they will have different norms.)

    From another perspective, regression to the norm also helped me see
    that part of extending trust for risk for greater performance meant
    building tolerance for the periodic failures. Trust-risk-performance
    operates in an iterative, corrective cycle/system. If punishment is
    imprudently placed in the cycle, then it has a dampening effect on
    risk-taking so the deviation from the norm becomes less. In turn, the
    occurrence of "high" performance becomes less. In some cases, the norm
    also moves "down".

    With that in mind, Dr. Blanchard's advice in the One Minute Manager on
    differentiating between "winners" and "learners" is most useful.
    Because at some point on the risk curve/scale, every performer moves
    from being a "winner" (knows how to do something with a high norm of
    success) to a "learner", I think those seeking "top" performance should
    discipline high risk-taking performers as "learners", as a rule.

    Best wishes.

    Ed
    Drive On!

    >>> Jay Warner <a2q@EXECPC.COM> 12/19/99 10:23PM >>>
    <snip>
    We tend to forget the folks who hit for the stands, and missed.
    <snip>
    Could we not say that the 'rational' view cited above aims to minimize
    the standard deviation of the result, settling for a steady positive
    gain? Then those who aim higher, at greater risk, have a larger
    standard deviation. With luck, they also have a positive gain, on
    average. When we cull out those who aim high but miss on the early
    tries, the long term record would favor grand gesture. The celebrated
    successes would thus be censored data, and misleading at that.
    Jay


  • 17.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-20-1999 18:37
    Jim

    Is there really a way of avoiding 'bad' decisions? I mean, if
    Colombus had thought he wasn't going to discover China would he
    have set out on his first voyage? Was it a bad decision on the
    part of Alexander Fleming to contaminate a culture and thereby
    discover penicillin? Was it a bad decision by President Truman to
    order the dropping of the Atomic bombs thereby shortening the
    War? Was it a bad decision by Churchill to let the Germans bomb
    Coventry in order to not give away the fact that the British had
    already broken the German's codes?

    In the first two example the decisions were 'accidental'. Neither
    Columbus nor Fleming knew what their outcome would be. But in the
    latter two, both people knew the ramifications of their decisions
    - but went ahead anyway.

    Bad decisions or decisions made with a full knowledge of the
    risks? I think we make these kinds of decisions every day -
    should we walk or ride to work? Should I carry an umbrella even
    though the sun is out? Should I exercise or have a second helping
    of pie? I'm sure if there was a magic formula by which we could
    lessen the chances of making a decision that had the most
    unfavourable outcome beyond those which we already possess (eg,
    SMART, Multi-Criteria, Decision Trees, Risk-Sensitivity,
    Probabilistic decision making techniques, and so on) then I'm
    sure we'd even be tossing up between deciding to use it or making
    a decision without such analysis.

    Just a thought.

    Phil Rutherford


  • 18.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-20-1999 18:42
    How do I get removed from this list please??

    Thanks.

    Maria


  • 19.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-21-1999 04:35
    All bad decisions are learning experiences and are, therefore, of some
    value. If we didn't recognise this then we'd never make a decision.

    A person I used to know had a saying (though he may have pinched it from
    elsewhere):
    "The person who never made a mistake never made ???? all"
    I shall leave you to fill in the question marks yourself.

    Didn't Bill Gates once say he could see no practical use for the Internet?
    What a learning experience that was !

    Seasons Greetings to All.
    Regards,
    Kevin Fields
    Lecturer: Tourism & Hospitality Management
    Birmingham College of Food, Tourism
    & Creative Studies

    "Education is not filling a bucket but lighting a fire."
    --- WILLIAM BUTLER YEATS


  • 20.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-21-1999 12:34
    This is a side-issue but re: the comment about Churchill and the
    bombing of Coventry.

    My understanding is that the co-ordinator of the code breaking effort
    in Bletchley (under Alan Turing) was C H Alexander, (well known
    British chess player) who got flu that week and was told to go home.

    That night they failed to break one vector of the code, (about the
    only time they failed) and thus could not intercept the bombers that
    were bound for Coventry.

    I don't think Churchill had anything to do with that.

    After the war, however, Churchill deliberately suppressed the
    computer, designed by a Mr. Swallow I think, that was used to break
    the German code. He had it dismantled.

    That was a bad decision.

    Regards
    Dave Stewardson
    ISRU {Industrial Statistics Research Unit}
    MMME {Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering}
    Stephenson Building
    University of Newcastle upon Tyne
    Tyne & Wear
    England
    GB - NE1 7RU
    TEL 00 44 191 222 6244
    FAX 00 44 191 222 7365


  • 21.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-21-1999 13:18
    Dave
    But I don't think Churchill's decision was necessarily a bad one. We have to
    know what was happening at the time; why did he do it?; what information did
    he have?; whose interests was Churchill trying to serve?
    It may seem clear now, but that's not the point.
    John Naylor


  • 22.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-21-1999 17:58
    John,

    Your thoughts are, I believe, at the centre of this whole debate
    over good or bad decision making at the time when most, if not
    all, of the outcomes are either known or suspected. Sometimes a
    decision has to be made because the alternative to the decision
    is a far less preferred option.

    Churchill knew, because of Britain's ability to read top secret
    Enigma messages, of Nazi Germany's objective to mass bomb
    Coventry. His choice was to warn the citizens of Coventry, and
    thereby alert the Germans to Britain's code breaking capability,
    or not warn them in order to protect this secret. History tells
    us of his decision.

    We had a very similar case in Viet Nam. In 1969 we had captured
    the VC's codebooks and were all set to play out a sting in order
    to get a better picture of their short term objectives. The
    decision was do it and hopefully save a lot of allied lives in
    the short term or let things go in the hope that they won't know
    how we came to get their codebooks. The 'powers-that-be' chose
    the latter course of action.

    Good decision or bad decision? Only history is the judge. A
    thought to ponder: How would the US have been judged if, after
    dropping the Atomic bombs, Japan had won the war?

    The point we have to be concerned with is how can we best prepare
    our managers for both making these decisions and living with the
    consequences. Remember what happened in late 1945 to a number of
    people working on the Manhatten Project? They made the decision
    to work on 'the bomb' but, after they saw its effect, many were
    suddenly stricken with a conscience. I'm sure Churchill and
    Truman went through exactly the same thing - but they were better
    prepared to deal with it.

    Phil Rutherford



    John Naylor wrote:
    >
    > Dave
    > But I don't think Churchill's decision was necessarily a bad one. We have to
    > know what was happening at the time; why did he do it?; what information did
    > he have?; whose interests was Churchill trying to serve?
    > It may seem clear now, but that's not the point.
    > John Naylor


  • 23.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-22-1999 16:27
    Fred Nickols wrote:
    >
    > Ruth Axelrod wrote...
    >
    > >Taking this a step further, if Elliott Jaques and others are right that
    > >our ability to project out into the future grows with age, is age a
    > >variable in the nature of decision-making, that is, how we weigh these
    > >factors?
    >
    > What's a good source for the Jaques comment, Ruth? I'd like to look into it.
    > Fred Nickols
    > The Distance Consulting Company
    > "Assistance at A Distance"
    > http://home.att.net/~nickols/distance.htm
    > nickols@worldnet.att.net
    > (609) 490-0095

    I think you can find this in the book he co-authored, titled
    Executive Leadership. But if memory serves me correctly, he
    also said there are inherent limits to the future vision
    capacity of any person. He broke the time limit horizons
    into
    eight groups, and postulated that a person may be able to
    increase their capacity by, at best, one horizon level. He
    called this the Cognitive Power theory. It is purely
    empirically
    based, and many folks I've spoken with about it don't buy
    it.

    Jim
    --
    James H. Dobbins, Ph.D.
    Critical Success Factors 4U
    157 Autumn Drive South
    Stafford, VA 22554
    540-752-1123


  • 24.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-23-1999 00:26
    Dave Stewardson wrote:

    > [snip]
    > After the war, however, Churchill deliberately suppressed the
    > computer, designed by a Mr. Swallow I think, that was used to break
    > the German code. He had it dismantled.
    >
    > That was a bad decision.
    >
    > Regards
    > Dave Stewardson
    > ISRU {Industrial Statistics Research Unit}
    > MMME {Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing
    > Engineering}
    > Stephenson Building
    > University of Newcastle upon Tyne
    > Tyne & Wear
    > England
    > GB - NE1 7RU
    > TEL 00 44 191 222 6244
    > FAX 00 44 191 222 7365

    According to Augarten, Stan, "Bit by Bit: an illustrated hisotry of
    computers," Ticknor & Fields, New York, 1984, Colossus was developed to
    crack the German code machine, Enigma, which it did. Colossus "was
    neither a calculator nor a computer, althought it could perform some
    calculator- or computer-like operations, and it never occurred to the
    scientists at Bletchley Park to make a stored-program computer." (pg.
    146)

    Which is not to reduce the amazing accomplishment of the machine.

    After the war there was no need to crack the Enigma code, so why not
    dismantle it? As to a decision to let the people who developed and ran
    Colossus go their seperate ways, instead of keeping them concentrated to
    develop computers, such as the U of Manchester did, now _that_ was a
    mistake, which would have required considerable foresight to avoid.

    Jay
    --
    Jay Warner
    Principal Scientist
    Warner Consulting, Inc.
    4444 North Green Bay Road
    Racine, WI 53404-1216
    USA

    Ph: (262) 634-9100
    FAX: (262) 681-1133
    email: quality@a2q.com
    web: http://www.a2q.com

    The A2Q Method (tm). What do you want to improve today?


  • 25.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-23-1999 01:05
    Hindsight is 100% correct. We would not be where we are today if not for
    those who made bold decisions to experiment, innovate, take a stand....and
    made mistakes. Bad decisions? We sure learned a lot from them.

    Victor Magdaraog
    Manila, Philippines


    -----Original Message-----
    From: Jay Warner <a2q@EXECPC.COM>
    To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU <MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU>
    Date: Thursday, December 23, 1999 1:51 PM
    Subject: Re: any other examples of a bad decision...........?


    >Dave Stewardson wrote:
    >
    >> [snip]
    >> After the war, however, Churchill deliberately suppressed the
    >> computer, designed by a Mr. Swallow I think, that was used to break
    >> the German code. He had it dismantled.
    >>
    >> That was a bad decision.
    >>
    >> Regards
    >> Dave Stewardson
    >> ISRU {Industrial Statistics Research Unit}
    >> MMME {Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing
    >> Engineering}
    >> Stephenson Building
    >> University of Newcastle upon Tyne
    >> Tyne & Wear
    >> England
    >> GB - NE1 7RU
    >> TEL 00 44 191 222 6244
    >> FAX 00 44 191 222 7365
    >
    >According to Augarten, Stan, "Bit by Bit: an illustrated hisotry of
    >computers," Ticknor & Fields, New York, 1984, Colossus was developed to
    >crack the German code machine, Enigma, which it did. Colossus "was
    >neither a calculator nor a computer, althought it could perform some
    >calculator- or computer-like operations, and it never occurred to the
    >scientists at Bletchley Park to make a stored-program computer." (pg.
    >146)
    >
    >Which is not to reduce the amazing accomplishment of the machine.
    >
    >After the war there was no need to crack the Enigma code, so why not
    >dismantle it? As to a decision to let the people who developed and ran
    >Colossus go their seperate ways, instead of keeping them concentrated to
    >develop computers, such as the U of Manchester did, now _that_ was a
    >mistake, which would have required considerable foresight to avoid.
    >
    >Jay
    >--
    >Jay Warner
    >Principal Scientist
    >Warner Consulting, Inc.
    >4444 North Green Bay Road
    >Racine, WI 53404-1216
    >USA
    >
    >Ph: (262) 634-9100
    >FAX: (262) 681-1133
    >email: quality@a2q.com
    >web: http://www.a2q.com
    >
    >The A2Q Method (tm). What do you want to improve today?
    >


  • 26.  any other examples of a bad decision...........?

    Posted 12-28-1999 15:19
    They recorded under EMI in England, a subsidiary of Capitol.

    VJ also released an album by the Beatles, pretty much in line with the Please
    Please album. They got sued.

    Alonzo