>Date: Mon, 13 Dec 1999 09:00:00 EST
Having brought the impending Y2K problem to the attention of the USAF in
1968 and various commercial organizations since 1972, I have been watching
with interest the subsequent behavior of IT "professionals."
It appears that organizations of humans have the same psychological
abnormalities as does an individual. Neuroses, psychoses, etc. In fact,
denial, sustained denial and panic are very visible in the Y2K situation.
I suggest you explore this with your students. Part of Denial is
purposeful denial brought about by clever perceptual behaviors for
discounting undeniable risk situations. This was described about 10 years
ago in Scientific American article on Risk Assessment. Sorry I do not have
a more precise citation.
Perhaps a smaller but more ludicrous decision pattern has been the reaction
to the Y2K risk of rushing to install ERP and other canned applications
packages in their MIS. Up to 1992 the U.S. companies were rolling along
spending only about $7 billion per year on "management consulting" From
1992 to 1995 expenditures in that category balooned to $14 billion as the
BPR silliness and ERP silver bullet came into vogue. Spending at $14
billion and above has continued to date.
Much was unnecessary. And watch what happens to this market when Y3K
finally gets underway and the Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt sales strategy
perfected by IBM three decades ago is no longer effective.
>From: "Ted Rosen, Ph.D." <
THRosen@AOL.COM>
>Subject: Non-participants, flaming etc
>
>I'd like to suggest that the worst decisions were related to not updating
>legacy and other computer systems to be Y2K compliant when the issue first
>came up several years ago. It could not have been a cost issue since
>conversion costs now, and other unknown problem costs yet to be determined,
>seem to be higher than an organized plan of conversion would have been 10
>years ago.
>
>How did these CIO's, COO's, and CEO's expect to stay functional at the turn
>of the year 2000 with systems that would send the calculations back to 1900?
>
>Other issues might include the Ford Pinto gas tank problems, the Titanic's
>lack of lifeboats, or even current cruise lines that are short of life boats.
>
>Good luck, John. Let me know what happens with your research. I am also
>looking for examples for my Executive Decision Making course.
>
>Ted
Jack Ring, 32712 N. 70th St., Snottsdale, AZ 85262-7143
480-488-4615, Cell) 602.369.4615,