Discussion: View Thread

Here is what I have learned and experience. Good intuition is based on the
following:
Firm grounding in ethical principles
Deep psychological insight of human nature
Solid information about the situations and the people are you working with
Broad knowledge of the world as well as the particular business you are in
Learning from the mistakes of making poor judgement in the past.

If you can combine all the above, and with a lot of practice, you are more
likely to have good intuition in decision making.


-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Lundquist
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
Sent: 8/31/2003 7:05 AM
Subject: Re: Decisions

Colleagues,

Erwin has opened a powerfully important topic. Jack brings up "informed
intuition" as a component of management decision making. Dialog could
and
probably should expand into subtopics as we explore this area.

For now, I am intrigued by "informed intuition." You see, I've spent
the
last 15 years facilitating decisions by management teams in which their
intuition is distinctly wrong. Without a new decision process, they
would
continue to make unproductive, sometimes even disastrous decisions.

The particular issue comes down to blind spots. For instance, a manager
of
engineering applies every ounce of learned intuition to make the best
decision on product development, yet completely ignores entire suites of
criteria brought in by needs for brand development.
Not that manager's fault - he or she was never taught about
branding.
Still, the decisions are weak at best.

As a criteria for effective decisions, let me suggest the concept of
dimensions.
We all know that it takes just three dimensions to describe the
shape of
a box. X, Y, Z. Indeed, those dimensions can describe the shape of
anything inside or outside the box.
Now answer this. How many dimensions does it take to describe a
box?
No, that isn't the same question. Before I asked about shape. Now I'm
asking about every characteristic of the box. Color, materials,
strength,
how it opens, ability to hold water or maintain temperature, or contain
radioactivity, and on, and on.

How many dimensions does it take to define all the options of a
decision?
Not an easy question.

In Jack's language, how many dimensions of "informed intuition" does it
take
to make an effective decision?
In business, we tend to staff out dimensions. R&D, manufacturing,
marketing, finance, HR, and so on. Recently, the dimension of
information
technology has become so important that IT is among the first staffed in
new
companies.

Yet almost without fail, each department makes decisions based on
distinctly
uninformed intuition. An old term is paradigms. HR makes its decisions
from an HR paradigm. Manufacturing can't understand the language or
reasoning of finance. IT seems to revel in its new jargon and its new
power, with virtually no concern for serving customers at a profit.

Each manager could work to discover the practical core dimensions of
intuition required for effective decisions in their domain. Then they
could
develop decision tools to remind themselves that, for instance, brand is
as
important to commercial success as are product features.

Known dimensions can become decision tools - a form of decision
discipline.

The value of "dimension discipline" would be, in part, to overcome
uninformed intuition.

Best to all,

Gary

----------------------------
Innovation and Branding – done Strategically

Gary Lundquist - The Accelerator
303-840-9929 www.market-engineering.com
garyl@market-engineering.com

Making and keeping satisfied customers,
at a profit, over time,
in a competitive environment.
---
[This E-mail scanned for viruses by Declude Virus]

From: rusty rae [mailto:rustyrae@comcast.net]

Like other business skills, intuition is something that some are more
adept at than others. You might also call it non-linear problem solving.
One of the issues is that there is little formal applied knowledge
regarding how you teach intuitive skills with the business schools. Even
the knowledge that is there is often times looked at with disdain, by
many teaching management skills, since it is less empirical.
For example, consider that entrepreneurs have a different way of
thinking about the world than the norm of MBA business managers. They
appear, in my opinion, to be able to utilize their intuitive thinking to
not only envision new products, but see the pathways to success when
others are not able. Saras D. Sarasvathy of the University of Washington
and apparently soon to be at Univesity of Maryland has done some very
interesting work on the subject. Check the following:

http://www.effectuation.org/ftp/effectua.pdf

http://www.darden.edu/batten/pdf/Saras_3views010402.pdf

http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2002-May/011363.html

paxm
-rr

From: rusty rae [mailto:rustyrae@comcast.net]

Like other business skills, intuition is something that some are more
adept at than others. You might also call it non-linear problem solving.
One of the issues is that there is little formal applied knowledge
regarding how you teach intuitive skills with the business schools. Even
the knowledge that is there is often times looked at with disdain, by
many teaching management skills, since it is less empirical.
For example, consider that entrepreneurs have a different way of
thinking about the world than the norm of MBA business managers. They
appear, in my opinion, to be able to utilize their intuitive thinking to
not only envision new products, but see the pathways to success when
others are not able. Saras D. Sarasvathy of the University of Washington
and apparently soon to be at Univesity of Maryland has done some very
interesting work on the subject. Check the following:

http://www.effectuation.org/ftp/effectua.pdf

http://www.darden.edu/batten/pdf/Saras_3views010402.pdf

http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2002-May/011363.html

paxm
-rr
-----Original Message-----
From: Management Education and Development Discussion
[mailto:MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU] On Behalf Of Paul Wong
Sent: Sunday, August 31, 2003 9:21 AM
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
Subject: Re: Intuition

Here is what I have learned and experience. Good intuition is based on
the
following:
Firm grounding in ethical principles
Deep psychological insight of human nature
Solid information about the situations and the people are you working
with
Broad knowledge of the world as well as the particular business you are
in
Learning from the mistakes of making poor judgement in the past.

If you can combine all the above, and with a lot of practice, you are
more
likely to have good intuition in decision making.


-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Lundquist
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
Sent: 8/31/2003 7:05 AM
Subject: Re: Decisions

Colleagues,

Erwin has opened a powerfully important topic. Jack brings up "informed
intuition" as a component of management decision making. Dialog could
and
probably should expand into subtopics as we explore this area.

For now, I am intrigued by "informed intuition." You see, I've spent
the
last 15 years facilitating decisions by management teams in which their
intuition is distinctly wrong. Without a new decision process, they
would
continue to make unproductive, sometimes even disastrous decisions.

The particular issue comes down to blind spots. For instance, a manager
of
engineering applies every ounce of learned intuition to make the best
decision on product development, yet completely ignores entire suites of
criteria brought in by needs for brand development.
Not that manager's fault - he or she was never taught about
branding.
Still, the decisions are weak at best.

As a criteria for effective decisions, let me suggest the concept of
dimensions.
We all know that it takes just three dimensions to describe the
shape of
a box. X, Y, Z. Indeed, those dimensions can describe the shape of
anything inside or outside the box.
Now answer this. How many dimensions does it take to describe a
box?
No, that isn't the same question. Before I asked about shape. Now I'm
asking about every characteristic of the box. Color, materials,
strength,
how it opens, ability to hold water or maintain temperature, or contain
radioactivity, and on, and on.

How many dimensions does it take to define all the options of a
decision?
Not an easy question.

In Jack's language, how many dimensions of "informed intuition" does it
take
to make an effective decision?
In business, we tend to staff out dimensions. R&D, manufacturing,
marketing, finance, HR, and so on. Recently, the dimension of
information
technology has become so important that IT is among the first staffed in
new
companies.

Yet almost without fail, each department makes decisions based on
distinctly
uninformed intuition. An old term is paradigms. HR makes its decisions
from an HR paradigm. Manufacturing can't understand the language or
reasoning of finance. IT seems to revel in its new jargon and its new
power, with virtually no concern for serving customers at a profit.

Each manager could work to discover the practical core dimensions of
intuition required for effective decisions in their domain. Then they
could
develop decision tools to remind themselves that, for instance, brand is
as
important to commercial success as are product features.

Known dimensions can become decision tools - a form of decision
discipline.

The value of "dimension discipline" would be, in part, to overcome
uninformed intuition.

Best to all,

Gary

----------------------------
Innovation and Branding - done Strategically

Gary Lundquist - The Accelerator
303-840-9929 www.market-engineering.com
garyl@market-engineering.com

Making and keeping satisfied customers,
at a profit, over time,
in a competitive environment.
---
[This E-mail scanned for viruses by Declude Virus]

"What Makes Entrepreneurs Entrepreneurial?"

An interesting article. I believe there is a distinct pattern of
thinking involved. Robert Bramson developed a cognitive styles
inventory, called InQ, or Inquiry Modes. If you were to contrast the
combination of Realist/Analyst thinking style with the
Realist/Pragmatist thinking style, I think you would find the
philosophical argument for the differences noted.
Bob Carr

-----Original Message-----
From: Charles Wankel [mailto:wankelc@optonline.net]
Sent: Saturday, November 01, 2003 5:51 AM
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
Subject: Re: Intuition


From: rusty rae [mailto:rustyrae@comcast.net]

Like other business skills, intuition is something that some are more
adept at than others. You might also call it non-linear problem solving.
One of the issues is that there is little formal applied knowledge
regarding how you teach intuitive skills with the business schools. Even
the knowledge that is there is often times looked at with disdain, by
many teaching management skills, since it is less empirical. For
example, consider that entrepreneurs have a different way of thinking
about the world than the norm of MBA business managers. They appear, in
my opinion, to be able to utilize their intuitive thinking to not only
envision new products, but see the pathways to success when others are
not able. Saras D. Sarasvathy of the University of Washington and
apparently soon to be at Univesity of Maryland has done some very
interesting work on the subject. Check the following:

http://www.effectuation.org/ftp/effectua.pdf

http://www.darden.edu/batten/pdf/Saras_3views010402.pdf

http://www.xent.com/pipermail/fork/2002-May/011363.html

paxm
-rr
-----Original Message-----
From: Management Education and Development Discussion
[mailto:MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU] On Behalf Of Paul Wong
Sent: Sunday, August 31, 2003 9:21 AM
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
Subject: Re: Intuition

Here is what I have learned and experience. Good intuition is based on
the
following:
Firm grounding in ethical principles
Deep psychological insight of human nature
Solid information about the situations and the people are you working
with Broad knowledge of the world as well as the particular business you
are in Learning from the mistakes of making poor judgement in the past.

If you can combine all the above, and with a lot of practice, you are
more likely to have good intuition in decision making.


-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Lundquist
To: MG-ED-DV@MAELSTROM.STJOHNS.EDU
Sent: 8/31/2003 7:05 AM
Subject: Re: Decisions

Colleagues,

Erwin has opened a powerfully important topic. Jack brings up "informed
intuition" as a component of management decision making. Dialog could
and probably should expand into subtopics as we explore this area.

For now, I am intrigued by "informed intuition." You see, I've spent
the last 15 years facilitating decisions by management teams in which
their intuition is distinctly wrong. Without a new decision process,
they would continue to make unproductive, sometimes even disastrous
decisions.

The particular issue comes down to blind spots. For instance, a manager
of engineering applies every ounce of learned intuition to make the best
decision on product development, yet completely ignores entire suites of
criteria brought in by needs for brand development.
Not that manager's fault - he or she was never taught about
branding.
Still, the decisions are weak at best.

As a criteria for effective decisions, let me suggest the concept of
dimensions.
We all know that it takes just three dimensions to describe the
shape of a box. X, Y, Z. Indeed, those dimensions can describe the
shape of anything inside or outside the box.
Now answer this. How many dimensions does it take to describe a
box? No, that isn't the same question. Before I asked about shape. Now
I'm asking about every characteristic of the box. Color, materials,
strength, how it opens, ability to hold water or maintain temperature,
or contain radioactivity, and on, and on.

How many dimensions does it take to define all the options of a
decision? Not an easy question.

In Jack's language, how many dimensions of "informed intuition" does it
take to make an effective decision?
In business, we tend to staff out dimensions. R&D, manufacturing,
marketing, finance, HR, and so on. Recently, the dimension of
information technology has become so important that IT is among the
first staffed in new companies.

Yet almost without fail, each department makes decisions based on
distinctly uninformed intuition. An old term is paradigms. HR makes
its decisions from an HR paradigm. Manufacturing can't understand the
language or reasoning of finance. IT seems to revel in its new jargon
and its new power, with virtually no concern for serving customers at a
profit.

Each manager could work to discover the practical core dimensions of
intuition required for effective decisions in their domain. Then they
could develop decision tools to remind themselves that, for instance,
brand is as important to commercial success as are product features.

Known dimensions can become decision tools - a form of decision
discipline.

The value of "dimension discipline" would be, in part, to overcome
uninformed intuition.

Best to all,

Gary

----------------------------
Innovation and Branding - done Strategically

Gary Lundquist - The Accelerator
303-840-9929 www.market-engineering.com
garyl@market-engineering.com

Making and keeping satisfied customers,
at a profit, over time,
in a competitive environment.
---
[This E-mail scanned for viruses by Declude Virus]

Colleagues,

What marvelous concepts this listserv introduces us to.

Sarasvathy has done fascinating and perhaps truly fundamental work.
I must admit that I am a skeptic.

First, this isn't new.
Ted Levitt told us about effectual thinking over 4 decades ago in
Marketing Myopia (Harvard Business Review, 1960).
"An industry is a customer satisfying process (effects creating
process), not a goods producing process."
I've argued here before that customers buy value (effects), not products.
You can find that in the writings of Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations
published over 220 years ago.

Second, we have paradigm problems.
Sarasvathy notes that one of her respondents would begin by selling, not
by doing market research to characterize the opportunity..
That person was using a sales paradigm to describe market research. The
only difference is the way information is gathered. Instead of "Do you need
a game on Venturing?", the respondent would say, "I've got this marvelous
game on venturing. Let me tell you about it." As features were described,
"customer" responses would be diagnostic of interest and enthusiasm.
Sarasvathy simply proves the need to understand customers early in the
venture.

Another paradigm - goals.
Sarasvathy says that entrepreneurs begin without goals. What she really
means is that they don't have formal, goals. Ask any entrepreneur what they
want to accomplish. They definitely have aspirations. Indeed, many have
quite detailed aspirations.
She argues that goals evolve, must be flexible to adapt to new
knowledge. Objectives (steps toward goals) are flexible. Objectives
connect durable goals to changing realities.
I just spent time with a (well funded) entrepreneur determined to put
coffee roasters in homes. He spent a million dollars developing a home
roaster, and more trying out advertising methods. At his initial price,
nothing sold. So he revised all of price, product, and advertising (went to
Home Shopping Network) and has gotten some sales. At $19 each, he'll have
to sell trainloads to cover his costs, but he persists. To say he has no
goal is... not seeing reality.

The real benefit of Sarasvathy's work is helping us recognize the importance
of effects.
Indeed, we all need to be driven by effects.
Ames and Hlavacek said so in Market Driven Management, describing inside
out (product driven) and outside in (needs driven) companies.

My effects driven mantra today is:
Customers define value (effect of product use).
Value defines brands (value promises).
Brands define innovations (effects of brand promises).
Innovations define companies (effects of producing innovations).
Companies define industries (effects of company successes).
In that order.

Best to all,

Gary


----------------------------
Innovation and Branding - done Strategically

Gary Lundquist - The Accelerator
303-840-9929 www.market-engineering.com
garyl@market-engineering.com

Making and keeping satisfied customers,
at a profit, over time,
in a competitive environment.

Thanks to Prof. Fenton-OCreevy for encouraging development of intuition. I
have applied Gary Klein's work for several years but was not aware of Eugene
Sadler-Smith.
Onward,
Jack Ring