Jack Ring writes regarding "Erwin's quest"...
>There are a set of universal questions that can be asked regarding any
>decision situation. In intuitive "decisions" these seem to be asked
>unconsciously but we might be wise to leave that to a later time in this
>thread.
I think that's the grail in Erwin's quest (i.e., the set of
questions). Oddly, I haven't seen much in the way of proposed questions
for inclusion in the set.
When I encounter decision-making situations, especially those in which
people are floundering about in formulating and choosing from among options
or between alternatives, I've always found it helpful to focus on
outcomes. Rarely will one question will accomplish this focusing but
variations seem to work. For example:
How will you measure success?
What will be different if your solution works?
What ends or outcomes are you seeking?
What results are you after?
What are you trying to make happen?
One of my favorite questions related to decision making is this: "How long
do I have in which to decide?" It's useful in avoiding choices about to be
made in the heat of the moment when there exists no real requirement to
respond that quickly. It's a time-buyer. (It also blew up in my face
once, infuriating the executive who had presented me with and pressed me
for a choice. His reply was, "None! Make it now!")
There are all kinds of questions to be asked and answered in relation to
problem solving and decision making. I once published a paper about
reengineering the problem solving process in which I suggested that solving
a problem was more a matter of "covering the bases" than it one of carrying
out a linear procedure. At the end of this article I included a set of
questions for each of the 12 problem solving "bases" discussed in the
article, a total of 138 questions distributed as follows:
1. Define the Problem (23)
2. Specify the Solved State (17)
3. Build Consensus and Support (16)
4. Troubleshoot the Problem (10)
OR
5. Design A Solution (19)
6. Identify the Means of Change (8)
7. Settle On A Course of Action (7)
8. Reconcile Restraints and Constraints (14)
9. Prepare Plans and Schedules (7)
10. Take Action (0)
11. Assess Its Effects and Consequences (11)
12. Adjust Future Actions (6)
>Vic Vroom recommended a series of general questions about decision
>situations that were designed to reveal which of seven methods of decision
>would more likely be the better. Some poke at the importance of the duality
>of decision. Because the best choice may not be implentable, it is the
>better, more likely to be implemented, decision that wins.
Isn't that closely akin to Simon's notion of "satisficing"?
>Beyond Vroom's set, other questions are concerned with 'do we know enough?'
>
>Yet other questions clarify the deadline.
>
>Yet ther questions seek to clarify whether the deciders will opt for a
>defensive or offensive posture or abdicate that reponsibility and opt to
>muddle through. This is a specific of the general question, "how will we
>know a good decision if we see one?"
>
>Drucker says the best question to ask for improving decision making is,
>"What were my reasons for a decision I made 90 days ago and how did they
>hold up?" and he recommends a personal Decisions Journal for this
>self-eduction practice.
>
>?? to explore how valid Leadership decision education might be ??
>
>IMO we all need education that fosters arriving at a course of action with
>acceptable Type 1 and Type 2 errors. The focus is on course of action not
>on fondling problems and methods.
I heartily agree. A problem is a situation requiring action and in which
the required action is not immediately apparent. Problem solving is all
about figuring out an appropriate course of action, not "fondling" the
problem, to use Jack's term. A solution, then, is a course of action that,
once carried out, solves the problem (i.e., eliminates the requirement for
action).
>?? how Leadership decision education might best be advocated and promoted
>so it might be implemented in educational and professional development
>programs ??
>
>Ride the Quality bandwagon. Decision quality is the key challenge and key
>measure. Adequacy, accuracy and timeliness of decisions can be measured as
>can the dollar penalty for T1 and T2 errors.
>
>Unless the need to learn is clearly established, adults always have more
>important pursuits.
I think that's a way of saying that very few practitioners are reflective.
In any event, it seems to me that a universal set of questions for use in
making decisions and that improve the decisions made would have to be few
in number and simple in nature. In that regard, I have one nominee:
How will things be different if you succeed?
Regards,
Fred Nickols, CPT
"Assistance at A Distance"
Distance Consulting
nickols@att.net
www.nickols.us